Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Obama to Widen the Delicate Delegate Gap with Clinton

He is favored to win North Carolina, she, Indiana. The latest polls have the races close - a 4 point lead for Hillary in Indiana, and an 8 point lead for Obama in NC. NC has 115 delegates, Indiana has 72 that are tied to today's primaries (not including superdelegates)

If the results match the polls, this is how the night may end up looking like:

Obama: 62 from North Carolina; 34 from Indiana - Total = 96 delegates
Clinton: 53 from North Carolina; 38 from Indiana - Total = 91 delegates

Obama has spent gazillions on campaign ads in Indiana to make himself known there. Clinton has an advantage in that way everywhere. She might be inspired to keep going after tonight's tally, but she is not closing the gap. He is doing well, considering friendly fire. Despite a recent reminder from Rev. J. Wright of Obama's past pastoral connection, he could be doing much worse in the mostly white Indiana.

Wright's message might ultimately be right, but his spirited delivery and provocative language was given at the wrong time - most recently last week. Go figure the timing, it was hard to tell if he was trying to help Obama or himself. Obama has been distancing himself from him, and it looks like he will have survived the negative association.

Hillary will take Indiana, he, North Carolina. It will be a win-win contest, with the edge to Barack.

No comments: